Marketing Nirvana

From an entrepreneur/brain scientist, Jeffrey Stibel, comes this intriguing analysis of networks (of any kind): take the brain, the internet, or how about social networks.

All networks grow according to Metcalfe’s Law until they hit a point of critical mass…and then they stop growing because the value equation changes.

So, what happens when a social network hits critical mass. According to Jeff: 2 things. Firstly, diminishing value and a higher level of functioning. Uh?

So what will become of the social networks? Well, we have already seen the fate of Friendster, it imploded. And the company we owned at United Online—Classmates.com—its growth has slowed. As for MySpace, I suspect that it is nearing its point of critical mass. These sites in many cases are seeing lower value because of their size: unwanted user connections (just watch To Catch a Predator on Dateline NBC), untenable navigation (try searching for John Smith on MySpace), and large numbers of inactive profiles. Facebook today is a different story. Its growth has yet to be tempered but it too is likely to hit a point of diminishing value.

But none of this is necessarily bad. Like the brain, a social network at critical mass enables higher level functioning: better communication, interaction and even consciousness. We can even see a “collective consciousness” emerging among some of the stronger social networks. So social networks should temper their growth to allow richer connections. The real power of a network does not lie in its growth, but in its stability: when the network reaches a point where higher level functioning can develop.

What do you think? Has MySpace developed a collective consciousness?

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